338Canada: Doug Ford and Ontario’s race for second via politico
model has the PC leading voting intentions with an average of 37 percent, a 9-point lead over the Ontario Liberal party, which is at 28 percent.The Green Party of Ontario, which had earned just under 5 percent in 2018, has climbed to an average of 7 percent. Obviously, these are provincial averages; to accurately forecast the landscape it helps to look at regional breakdowns.
According to the 338Canada model, Ford’s PCs win a majority in more than 80 percent of all simulations . A second Ford majority is not a done deal, but it’s by far the most likely scenario.
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