Some general background and a high level summary of the system
Over the next couple weeks leading into Opening Day, we’ll be rolling out the annual Bluebird Banter Top 40 prospect list in the usual manner of 10 sets of four prospects. As in the past few years, the 2025 list is the joint effort of Matt W and Tom M. A major difference between the analysis here compared what is generally found elsewhere is a probabilistic focus on the distribution of outcomes rather than a single grade or expectation.
This is the heart of the exercise, and we think provides a more objective basis for analyzing and ultimately comparing prospects, especially where they are very different. By mapping the roles to MLB value/WAR, it allows for an expected value, but also shows the variance. That’s especially significant in that what one wants is not always consistent. At the top of the list, lower risk is generally favoured.
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