Two 2022 draftees and two signees from different corners of the world
Doughty was selected 78th overall after the second round in this past year’s draft from Louisiana State, signing for $831,100 . His college career atconsisted principally of two full seasons in 2021-22, turning in very similar production at the plate. He hit near .300 with decent on-base ability/plate discipline and good pop .
One point to emphasize is that while college hitters are considered “safer” by virtue of having succeeded at the plate against a baseball of competitive pitching, ~25 years of data of players drafted in a similar range should temper expectations. About 40% never play an MLB game with another 35% a cup of coffee or being purely replacement level. Then the distribution flattens out, with role players, fringe regulars, regulars and a handful of truly impact players .
The pitch mix for Robberse starts with a high spin, four seam fastball in the low-90s, though he was touching the mid-90s in short outings this spring. He’ll also mix in a slightly slower variant with more movement around 90 MPH, basically a cutter. His slider gets good downward break though it’s not a wipeout pitch by any means, and sometimes gets more depth for more of a curveball look.
Given the lack of pro data to analyze, it’s instructive to look at other high school hitters drafted in a similar range for a rough baseline of the outcomes. The risk becomes obvious, as even among these bluechippers, about 60% don’t even make the majors. Another ~20% will make it without any value, most of them having just a cup of coffee.
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