The oil market faces numerous geopolitical threats in 2022 which could affect both supply and demand.
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Partly this stems from uncertainty about the impact of the Omicron variant of the covid virus, as well as possible supply problems in some countries where workers are having trouble performing needed maintenance due to supply chain issues. But the geopolitical environment could be even more vexing, even if it doesn’t appear to be factored into the oil price—as of yet. A number of threats to the global economy—and maybe oil supply—are lurking in the background and need to be considered seriously.
On the other hand, if serious damage is inflicted, a more robust response could not only increase military conflict throughout the region, including actions by the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, but also see attempts to disrupt oil flows in an effort to damage the global economy—from which the Iranians are largely excluded.
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