Which NHL players coming off surprisingly productive seasons will regress to the norm in 2023-24?
The issue for the Ducks is that on top of the underlying numbers indicating that these seasons are outliers, these numbers were also created in one of the league’s most consistently productive and creative offenses in the Tampa Bay Lightning.
It becomes even trickier to believe that Kuzmenko can continue this pace when you look at his 27.3% shooting percentage, which led the league amongst players with more than 10 games played. The reason why I like to compare a player’s shooting percentage to their career percentage is because while it’s safe to assume that most will hover around the league average of 9-10% year after year, some players can consistently overperform that because they’re more efficient shooters.
A big reason for Nugent-Hopkins success was due to the Oilers’ record-breaking power play, where he had 15 of his 37 goals and 53 of his 104 points. That’s right, his point totals drop by more than half if you look at just his even-strength production, going from ninth in league scoring to tied for 55th with Dylan Cozens, Dylan Larkin, Chandler Stephenson, Vincent Trocheck, and Evgeni Malkin, which is a group that he makes much more sense to be in outside of Malkin.
That’s not to say Ullmark didn’t deserve all of the success that he had last season. His underlying numbers were still among the best in the league, so he wasn’t just the product of playing behind the Bruins, and he’s a career .919, which is stillgood, especially in an era where goal-scoring is up. He’s just not as good as he was last season, so Bruins fans probably shouldn’t grab their pitchforks if he returns to normal next season, or worse, he regresses the other way.
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