Some Blue Jays stats will be telling even in shortened season - Sportsnet.ca

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Some Blue Jays stats will be telling even in shortened season - Sportsnet.ca
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A 60-game season is a small sample size in baseball but some stats will still be important to monitor as the young Blue Jays continue to develop. (NickAshbourne)

In the run-up to MLB’s unprecedented 60-game season there has been plenty of musing about the types of chaos such a campaign invites.

That starts with competitive anarchy and the idea that a shortened season will lead to flukier outcomes and a. There’s also the idea that individual statistics will be skewed to the point that someone could hit .400 or a significant record could fall due to small-sample-size madness. While some of that talk is overblown, the notion that what we see in 2020 will be a mirage of sorts has some validity. Almost any major-league calibre hitter or pitcher can have a scorching 60-game stretch, and when this season is done there will be a few performances we’ll have difficulty interpreting. That doesn’t mean this year’s numbers will mean nothing, though. Understanding what’s meaningful and what’s not will just require a slightly different lens than we’re used to applying..

Some statistics take longer to “stabilize” than others. Batting average, for instance, has a stabilization point of 910 at-bats because it’s subject to a great deal of randomness. It’s worth noting that the concept is oft-misapplied — Carleton wrote an excellent piece clarifying some of the errors— and it’s not the analytical silver bullet some make it out to be. Even so, it is handy if only to direct us to numbers that mean more in smaller samples.

After all, in 2020 small samples are the only samples we’re going to get. With that in mind, here are a few Blue Jays statistics worth keeping a close eye on in 2020 that should be significant amidst a sea of confusing results, many of which we’d do well to dismiss:

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